| Actuarial
assessments Actuarial Group
Contact: Prof Rob Dorrington
Tel: +27 (0) 21 650
2467
E-mail: rdorring@commerce.uct.ac.za
Assessment
of HIV vaccine requirements and effects
of HIV vaccination in southern Africa
The
objective of this research is to develop
a mathematical model capable of:
- Assessing the most appropriate strategy
for distributing HIV/AIDS vaccines in South
Africa when supply is limited.
- Identifying the total demand for vaccination
in South Africa, for both short-term scenarios
(vaccination targeted at particular groups)
and long-term scenarios (no supply-side constraints).
- Identifying the total demand for vaccination
in other Southern African Development Community
(SADC) countries, for long-term scenarios.
- Evaluating the potential long-term demographic
and epidemiological effects of vaccination
in SADC countries.
This will be achieved by adapting the ASSA2000
Interventions model (a model for the South African
population) and the ASSA2000 Urban-rural model
(a model for other African countries). Uncertainty
and sensitivity analyses will be conducted to
assess the dependence of the model results on
the assumptions regarding vaccine characteristics,
vaccine efficacy, vaccine distribution and behaviour
change in response to vaccination. Sensitivity
and uncertainty analyses will also be conducted
for standard epidemiological and behavioural
parameters, not specifically related to vaccine
modelling.
|
|
Partners
Making the vaccines
 The University of Cape Town (UCT)
Testing the vaccines
HIV Vaccine Research Unit, MRC, Durban
HIV Vaccine Division of the Perinatal HIV Research Unit (PHRU)
Aurum Health
Cape Town Clinical Trials Consortium
Immunology assessment
The National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD)
Ethical issues
HIV/AIDS Vaccine Ethics Group (HAVEG), University of KwaZulu-Natal
Community involvement
Masikhulisane SAAVI Community Involvement Group
Behavioural science
Socio-behavioural research group
Actuarial assessments
Actuarial Group
Data and bioinformatics
Data Management (MRC) |
